Automated Polymarket Trading Bot

Make Money From
Weather Forecasts
On Autopilot

Polymarket pays real USDC for correct weather predictions. Most traders guess. WeatherClaw uses 122 ensemble forecast models to find mispriced markets and trade them automatically — so you profit while you sleep.

$ openclaw skill add weatherclaw
Polymarket OpenClaw USDC Payouts 122 Ensemble Models Auto-Settlement
bun run scan — paper mode
61.7%
Backtest Win Rate
20.7%
Avg Edge Per Trade
122
Ensemble Forecasts
1,440
Scans Per Day
$50
Min Bankroll
<1s
Per Scan Cycle

Built to compound, not gamble

Every component exists to find edge, size it correctly, and protect your bankroll when the market moves against you.

🌧
3-Model Consensus
GFS (31 members) and ECMWF (51 members) are combined into a single weighted probability. Four confidence tiers — LOCK, STRONG, SAFE, NEAR-SAFE — determine how aggressively to bet. No single model, no guessing.
📈
Kelly Sizing
Every trade is sized by the Kelly criterion to maximize long-term growth. Quarter-Kelly keeps variance low. LOCK signals bet 1.5×, STRONG 1.2×. Max position capped at 5% of bankroll — one bad trade can’t blow you up.
Circuit Breaker
3 consecutive losses and trading halts automatically. No emotional revenge trading, no death spiral. Resets on the next win. Your bankroll is protected even when the models miss.
📄
Paper → Live Toggle
Start in paper mode with zero risk — identical logic, no real money. When you’re confident, flip to live and WeatherClaw places real CLOB orders on Polymarket. One environment variable, same codebase.
OpenClaw Deployment
Install with openclaw skill add weatherclaw and it runs on your VPS via cron. No Docker, no Kubernetes. Scans every 30 minutes, settles daily, reports via web dashboard.
📊
Live Web Dashboard
Real-time P&L, open positions, signal history, and settlement status in a single dashboard. See exactly what the bot is doing, what it’s holding, and how much you’ve made — from any device.

Weather models know more than the market does

Polymarket lets anyone bet on tomorrow’s temperature. Most traders use gut feeling. WeatherClaw uses the same models that power the National Weather Service.

Step 01
The Market
Polymarket lists daily temperature brackets for 6 US cities — “Will NYC’s high be 38–39°F?” Each bracket trades like a stock with a price between 0¢ and 100¢. Correct predictions pay $1 USDC. That price is set by the crowd — and the crowd is often wrong.
Step 02
The Mispricing
WeatherClaw fetches 122 ensemble forecast members from GFS and ECMWF — the same models used by NOAA. It calculates the true probability of each bracket and compares it to the market price. When the gap exceeds 8%, that’s a trade.
Step 03
The Execution
Each signal is sized using the Kelly criterion to maximize long-term growth without risking ruin. Paper mode logs the trade instantly. Live mode places a real limit order on Polymarket’s CLOB. Every 30 minutes, the bot scans again.
Step 04
The Settlement
When the day ends, actual observed temperatures are fetched from Iowa State Mesonet. Winning positions pay $1 USDC per share. Losses cost your entry price. P&L is tracked automatically — you just check the dashboard.

Polymarket weather markets are consistently mispriced

6 cities, 7 days ahead, high and low brackets — that’s 100+ markets every day where retail traders set prices based on vibes and WeatherClaw trades on data.

NYC
New York City
40.713°N   74.006°W
NWS OKX 33,37 KNYC
CHI
Chicago
41.878°N   87.630°W
NWS LOT 76,73 KORD
MIA
Miami
25.762°N   80.192°W
NWS MFL 76,50 KMIA
ATL
Atlanta
33.749°N   84.388°W
NWS FFC 52,88 KATL
SEA
Seattle
47.606°N   122.332°W
NWS SEW 124,67 KSEA
DFW
Dallas
32.777°N   96.797°W
NWS FWD 80,103 KDFW

Real edge, real numbers

A single scan on Feb 18 2026 found 19 signals with edges up to +72.8%. 10 trades executed automatically with $24.25 total exposure. This happens every 30 minutes.

Scan output — Feb 18 2026  22:00 UTC 19 signals  ·  10 executed  ·  $24.25 exposure
CityBracketSide Model%Mkt¢Edge% SizeConfidence
Atlantaabove 68°F NO 81.8%9.0¢ +72.8%$2.50 LOCK
Miami76–77°F YES 63.9%6.5¢ +57.4%$2.50 LOCK
Chicagobelow 58°F YES 40.0%1.9¢ +38.1%$1.75 LOCK
NYC38–39°F YES 28.4%5.8¢ +22.6%$2.50 LOCK
Seattle42–43°F NO 69.1%51.0¢ +18.1%$2.50 LOCK
Chicago64–65°F NO 98.5%78.5¢ +20.0%$2.50 LOCK

Frequently asked

How much money can I make?
It depends on your bankroll and market conditions. Backtest data shows a 61.7% win rate with an average edge of 20.7% per trade. With a $50 bankroll and quarter-Kelly sizing, individual trades are $1–$3 USDC. Compounding winners grows the bankroll over time. This is not a get-rich-quick scheme — it’s a systematic edge that compounds.
What’s the minimum to start?
$50 USDC on Polygon is a practical minimum. Individual trades range from $1–$3 with default settings. You’ll also need a small amount of MATIC for gas fees (a few cents per transaction). Paper mode is completely free — no wallet or funds required.
Is this actually profitable or just backtested?
The backtests use real historical market prices and real ensemble forecast data — no lookahead bias. Paper mode lets you verify the edge in real-time before risking a dollar. The signal table on this page shows real output from a live scan. That said, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results and market conditions can change.
What if it starts losing money?
The circuit breaker automatically halts all trading after 3 consecutive losses. No emotional revenge trading, no death spiral. It resets on the next win. Quarter-Kelly sizing also ensures no single trade risks more than a small fraction of your bankroll. You can also pause the bot at any time by stopping the OpenClaw cron.
Do I need to know anything about weather or trading?
No. WeatherClaw handles everything — fetching forecasts, discovering markets, calculating edge, sizing positions, and settling outcomes. You install it, set your bankroll, and let it run. The dashboard shows you exactly what’s happening in plain English. If you want to understand the math, the code is open source.
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a prediction market platform where you buy and sell shares on real-world outcomes. Weather markets let you bet on questions like “Will NYC’s high be between 38–39°F tomorrow?” Shares trade between 0¢ and 100¢. If you’re right, your shares pay out $1 USDC each. If wrong, they expire worthless. It’s built on Polygon and settles in USDC.
Deploy in 5 minutes

Your edge is waiting

Paper trade with zero risk. See the edge for yourself. When you’re ready, flip to live and start earning USDC.